·International oil prices fall, domestic oil prices are expected to fall again on June 8

On the 14th local time, New York oil prices and Brent oil prices both fell, including New York oil prices closed down 1.4%, closing price of 94.78 US dollars per barrel, the lowest closing price in 5 months. As a result, the rate of change in international oil prices continued to fall by 1.32%. According to market organization analysis, if the international oil price maintains this level in the future, the rate of change of international oil prices will be 4% at the end of the month. On June 8, it may once again usher in the domestic oil price reduction window.

The European debt crisis reappeared and the oil price fell

International oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days since last Friday. The analysis said that the three major political parties in Greece were frustrated, causing fears that the market would default on its debt and exit the euro zone. The market has serious risk aversion, funds flow out of the commodity market, and seeks to hedge against the dollar market. The US dollar index has continued to rebound from 78.603 points in the past two weeks, and has now exceeded 80 points.

Correspondingly, crude oil futures reappeared. New York oil prices hit 94.59 US dollars per barrel on the 14th, closing at 94.78 US dollars per barrel, a five-month low.

Previously, in the early morning of May 10, due to the international oil price change rate of -4%, the domestic price of the first refined oil product fell during the year. However, international oil prices continued to fall on the 11th and 14th. Take New York oil prices as an example. So far this month, New York oil prices have fallen by 9.6%. Oil prices in New York fell 1% last Friday, with a weekly decline of 2.4%. As a result, the rate of change in oil prices in the three places has continued to decline, and has now fallen to -1.32%.

The oil price change rate of the three places is the fastest at the end of the month, breaking 4%

"In the future, the international oil price trend is difficult to judge, but if the European debt problem is not resolved, the international oil price will continue to the current level. At the end of this month, the rate of change of international oil prices may exceed 4%." Since the last oil price adjustment was in the early morning of May 10, it will be able to meet the 22 working day conditions on June 8th, which means that the price adjustment window will be opened on June 8.

The forecast from Treasure Island is also basically the same. Treasure Island data showed that as of the 14th, the oil price change rate of the three places fell by 1.03%. It is also predicted that domestic oil prices may fall again at the beginning of next month.

According to the oil price adjustment method previously announced by the National Development and Reform Commission, when the international oil price moves to a rate of 4% for 22 consecutive working days, the domestic refined oil price can be adjusted.

â–  Reaction

The price of oil is lowered, users are still not quench their thirst

This year, China's refined oil prices have risen and fallen after two rises. After the domestic refined oil prices were lowered on May 10, many consumers and oil users still shouted not to quench their thirst.

"This time the price of oil is not enough to quench your thirst. If you cut the price again in the future, then it is best." Zheng Qibin, general manager of Chengdu Ant Logistics Co., Ltd. told reporters that after the oil price increase in March, the company's monthly fuel cost increased by 30,000. Yuan, after this downgrade, it only reduces the monthly fuel fee by 15,000 yuan.

For this "expectation", many people in the industry said that it is not impossible. Cheng Ruifeng, an analyst with Dongfang Oil and Gas Network, said that if Brent oil prices remain below $113/barrel for a long time, the domestic oil price cut window will be reopened in early June.

Yao Daming, director of the Oil Products Department of the Guangdong Oil and Gas Chamber of Commerce, also believes that if the international oil price remains sluggish, China will ushered in the downward adjustment of oil prices in June, and the specific market judgment may become clear in late May.

â–  Viewpoint

If the cycle is shortened, the early reduction can be achieved.

On May 10, the domestic oil price was lowered. The new pricing mechanism expected by the market was not introduced. The NDRC only announced that the price reduction of oil did not mention when the pricing mechanism was introduced. If the price of domestic refined oil products can be successfully lowered at the beginning of next month, it will also set a second consecutive downward adjustment of domestic oil prices. At that time, is the new pricing mechanism expected to be introduced?

Liao Kaixuan said that the important reform of the new pricing mechanism that can be determined at present is to shorten the price adjustment cycle. Take this as an example. Although the market expects the rate of change to reach -4% at the end of May, it fails to meet the 22-day condition. Oil prices will not be lowered in time. If the price adjustment period is shortened to about 10 days, the oil price can be lowered as soon as possible.

However, he pointed out that the current international oil price is still at a high level. The NDRC is very cautious about the timing of the introduction of the new pricing mechanism, requiring oil prices to be at a low level. Otherwise, the introduction of high prices will only bring about an accelerated increase in domestic oil prices, which is unacceptable to the public.

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