Good prospects for radial trucks In the global tire industry, automobile tires account for 80%-90% of the total and are mainly divided into passenger vehicles (including light trucks) and trucks (middle and heavy trucks). In recent years, the growth of the tire industry has mainly come from the rapid growth of automobile tires. The automotive tire market is mainly divided into two submarkets: OE and Replacement. According to Datamonitor's data, in 2002, the automotive replacement market accounted for 86.50% of sales revenue. After 2003, with the rapid growth of global automobile production, the proportion should be reduced. However, in terms of sales volume or sales revenue, the overall pattern of the global automotive tire market, mainly replacing the market, has not changed. In recent years, with the growth of the automotive industry, the compound annual growth rate of China's automobile tire production has exceeded 18%. China's economic growth mode with investment as an important driving force is still heavy on the status quo of industrialization, and the gap between the number of sedan cars, making China’s automobile tire consumption structure and production structure significantly different from the developed countries and the global average level. The proportion of other tires is significantly higher than that of passenger cars. As China's heavy-duty tires demand and output are much larger than other countries, their investment is far more than other countries, and the conditions of overload and high-speed coexist, so China's heavy-duty tires, especially radial tire production technology has the characteristics of the world's advanced ranks. The load-carrying steel radial tire is currently the main source of profit for major domestic tire listed companies. The sales of all-steel steel tires increased significantly The domestic load-bearing tire market is mainly replaced. At the same time, the supporting market requires the pressure from the OEM to reduce the price of the product. Second, the payment period is long and the inventory is large. As a result, the profit margin is significantly smaller than the replacement market, but due to replacement of the original tire brand. The market has great influence. Therefore, each company still attaches great importance to the supporting market. The replacement rate of major companies in the domestic market is generally about 5:2. The proportion of export of heavy-duty tires is roughly around 30%. The products are basically used to replace the market, but they adopt low-price strategies with low gross profit margins. The profits are largely derived from export tax rebates (the current tax rate is 9%). In general, the proportion of sales of heavy-duty tire industry is: domestic matching 1.5/ domestic replacement 5.5/export 3. The order of profit contribution is replacement, export, and matching. Based on the situation in previous years, it is expected that the midday load rate (basically all steel) will increase by 5 percentage points annually. From 2009 to 2011, the sales growth of the all-steel tire industry was 3.66%, 13.25% and 15.58% respectively. In 2009, the sales of all-steel tires were around 57 million. New production capacity will be limited in the next two years The rapid growth in the demand for all-steel tyres and the history of preferential benefit for companies that first released their production capacity in the period 2002-2003 when the industry was in short supply have led to a sharp increase in new construction and expansion projects in the past 3-4 years, and the industry’s production capacity has seen a “great leap forwardâ€. From 2006 to 2008, new production capacity will be released in a concentrated manner. We expect that the domestic total production capacity of all steel tires will be around 65 million, and there are 5 million to 6 million production capacity under construction. The industry's current capacity is oversupplying nearly 20% of our sales in 2009. Due to the rapid growth in the demand for all-steel tyres, in fact, the industry’s production capacity has been in a relative surplus from 2005 onwards. In the next 2-3 years, demand will continue to show rapid growth. Therefore, the production capacity of most companies is mainly for the future. Development reserved. According to our research, with the financial crisis, due to financial constraints and uncertainties in industry trends, companies have become more cautious about investing in projects. The current expansion and new construction projects, especially private capital investment projects, have actually been stagnant. We expect that the capacity for truly new production in 2009 and 2010 will be relatively limited. Qingdao double star smile proud tire industry Although the profitability of the tire industry is affected by the fluctuation of natural rubber prices, there is uncertainty about the long-term grasp of the industry. However, under the “outside cold and internal heat†economic situation, the tire industry is expected to continue to grow in demand in 2009 and 2010, with a gradual balance between supply and demand and a limited cost increase. The profitability level will remain at a relatively high level. Give the industry "overweight" rating. Considering that the current valuation of most auto parts companies is 20 times PE, the current valuation of the tire industry is only 16 times or even lower. The previous market's overly pessimistic outlook on the industry outlook was the main reason why the valuation of tire companies was significantly lower than that of other parts companies. However, from the analysis of demand, supply, cost, and gross profit margin, the industry outlook in the next two years is not as pessimistic as previously expected. Therefore, we believe that the valuation of tire companies is currently low. It is recommended to pay attention to Fengshen Co., Ltd., Qingdao Double Star, and Tire tires. Judging from the performance elasticity and valuation level, Qingdao Double Star is more attractive. Qingdao Double Star: After the 1.3 million full-steel tires in Jiaonan were put into operation, Qingdao Double Star has currently produced 3.9 million full-steel (excluding 300,000 Dongfeng tires) and 3 million semi-steels (depending on market conditions, the company intends to expand production capacity). To 6 million). Starting from March of this year, the company's sales situation has rebounded significantly. From January to April, it is estimated that nearly 600,000 steel tires and 800,000 steel tires will be completed. It is prudent to expect sales to fall somewhat in the second half of the year as dealer inventory levels return to normal. If passenger and freight markets pick up, there is still more than expected. It is expected that the tax subsidies for the acquisition of Dongfeng Tire in 2009 will exceed 70 million yuan, or 0.14 yuan per share. It is expected that the company's earnings per share in 2009 and 2010 will be 0.54 yuan and 0.47 yuan respectively. The improvement of the company's performance is relatively large, the valuation is low, and it can be focused.
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