Non-governmental investment in the first quarter boosted infrastructure stability and weakened growth signals

In the first quarter, consumption and private investment data became a bright spot in economic growth.

On April 17, the Bureau of Statistics announced the first quarter investment data. In the first three months, the scale of investment in fixed assets across the country was approximately RMB 10.1 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. Data in the first quarter showed that the basic role of consumption continues to increase. The final consumer expenditure contribution rate to economic growth reached 77.8%, and the total capital formation contribution rate was only 31.3%.

The investment in the three major industries continues to continue its differentiation. The growth rate of first- and third-produced investments was higher, with an increase of 24.2% and 10%, respectively. The growth rate of investment in secondary industries was relatively low, only increasing by 2%.

Non-governmental investment witnessed a recovery growth. Private investment in the first quarter was approximately 6.2 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 62% of the total, which was an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. Analysts pointed out that the increase in private investment growth has been driven by real estate investment, but also related to the improvement of policies in recent years. In the first quarter, the growth of infrastructure investment slowed down by only 13%, which was related to the regulation of local government debt and leverage.

Wu Yaping, director of the institutional policy office of the Investment Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the status of investment in steady growth has changed fundamentally from the past, consumption has played a fundamental role in economic growth, and whether investment growth will affect the future in the future Not great. The string of investments should not be too tight. This will help state-owned enterprises, local governments, etc. to leverage and prevent risks.

Increased market power

In the first quarter, the country’s investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was approximately 10.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year, with the growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points from January to February and 1.7 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among them, private investment was about 6.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.9 percent, which was 0.8 percentage point higher than that of January-February and 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.

On April 17, at the announcement of the National Office for Newcomers, Xing Zhihong, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the perspective of investment structure, investment is making up short and shortcomings, strengths and weaknesses, and increasing strength, and the investment structure is continuously optimized. Since the beginning of this year, investment in agriculture and investment in the social sector have all increased by more than 20%. Among industrial investment, the proportion of investment in high-tech industries has been continuously rising.

"Optimizing the investment structure, the most important thing is that private investment has increased its vitality. Private investment accounts for more than 60% of total investment, and it increased by 8.9% in the first quarter, an increase of 2.9 percentage points over the previous year. At the same time, the area of ​​private investment is further widening, and some The field has been strengthened and it has had a positive impact on the optimization of supply structure and supply efficiency, said Xing Zhihong.

From the perspective of specific industries, the growth rate of investment in secondary industries was relatively low, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. Among them, investment in the mining industry increased by 2.5% year-on-year, falling by 13% in January-February; manufacturing investment rose by 3.8%, the growth rate fell by 0.5%; investment in the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries fell by 8.9%, falling Increased by 2.8 percentage points.

In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment increased by 13% year-on-year, and real estate development investment increased by 10.4%. Specifically, the investment in the water conservancy management industry increased by 10.1%, the growth rate fell by 2.8 percentage points; the investment in the public facilities management industry increased by 13.4%, the growth rate dropped by 2.2 percentage points; the investment in the road transportation industry increased by 18.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points; The investment in the railway transportation industry fell by 5.1%, which was a 3.4% increase in January-February.

Bank of Communications (6.080, -0.03, -0.49%) Tang Jianwei, chief macroeconomic analyst at the financial center, told 21st Century Business Herald that the production of rural residents is driven by the strategy of revitalizing rural areas. The central government is investing more. Accurate poverty alleviation is basically in rural areas. The investment base of production is not high, which makes the increase in production investment relatively high. The secondary production was affected by the elimination of outdated production capacity, and the investment growth rate was relatively low. The tertiary industry was subject to economic restructuring and adjustment, and the service industry grew rapidly, making the tertiary industry investment growth rate higher.

“In private investment, manufacturing investment accounts for a relatively large proportion. The current growth rate of investment in manufacturing is still declining, and private investment growth is picking up, which is mainly affected by the growth of real estate investment. The growth of real estate investment in the first quarter has rebounded to a new high in the past three years.” Tang Jianwei said.

Wu Yaping said that there has been a recovery in non-governmental investment, which indicates that the market's internal motivation is increasing. Behind real estate investment, it is also related to the high growth rate of some emerging industries.

Specifically, in the emerging industries, investment in computer, communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing increased by 15.4% in the first quarter; in addition, consumption upgrades and other initiatives were also evident, such as a 26.9% increase in investment in education in the first quarter, investment in culture, sports, and entertainment. It has increased by 25.3%.

Infrastructure stabilization signal weakened

The growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first quarter was only 13%, which was lower than the 19% growth in infrastructure investment last year. It was even lower than the 23.5% growth rate in the same period of last year.

Tang Jianwei stated that under the background of macro depreciation, the central government has tightened its financing platform for local governments, standardized the clean-up of PPP projects, and restricted the sources of local funds. “Originally, the focus of infrastructure investment was driven by the government, which resulted in the short-term reduction of infrastructure investment. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference diluted the target for GDP assessment. Local governments’ pressure on the total volume in the short-term was small, and more attention was paid to structural adjustment and quality. Lift up."

He further pointed out that "the current real estate investment can form a good support, infrastructure investment should not be too high."

Wu Yaping also stated that for the sake of preventing risks, standardizing PPP projects, regulating the operation of local government industrial funds, and separating financing platforms from government credits have relatively direct impact, making the current infrastructure investment growth rate lower.

Deng Haiqing, chief global economist of Kyushu Securities, pointed out that the decline in fixed investment is related to the tightening of government fiscal constraints, and the sharp drop in government investment has caused a drag on overall investment. The apparent drop in infrastructure investment has verified the marginal tightening of government fiscal policy, which is in line with the suspension of partial PPP and the strengthening of local government constraints.